Connecting protected areas in the North Mesopotamian steppes: can this ensure the survival of the Arabian Sand Gazelle (Gazella marica)?

Abstract

The Arabian Sand Gazelle (Gazella marica Thomas, 1897) is endemic to the Middle East and its populations in South-eastern Anatolia in Turkey are in danger of extinction. Here, we focus on its protected habitats in the Mesopotamian steppes and examine how to create connectivity between habitats under changing climate conditions. We use ecological niche modelling for four time periods, as simulated in five General Circulation Models (GCMs), to assess the distributional shifts of G. marica over the decades and predict its future ecological connection effectivity based on a least-cost model. We suggest establishing three potential corridors between core protected areas. The findings indicate that there will be a southward and westward shift in the distribution of the species due to future climate change. Overall, the results of the GCMs suggest that climate change will trigger habitat loss for G. marica. Unless conservation measures take the forecasted changes in habitat into consideration, the extinction of this species will be unavoidable.