Nonparametric learning for impulse control problems—Exploration vs. exploitation

Abstract

One of the fundamental assumptions in stochastic control of continuous time processes is that the dynamics of the underlying (diffu-sion) process is known. This is, however, usually obviously not fulfilled in practice. On the other hand, over the last decades, a rich theory for nonparametric estimation of the drift (and volatility) for continuous time processes has been developed. The aim of this paper is bringing together techniques from stochastic control with methods from statistics for stochastic processes to find a way to both learn the dynamics of the underlying process and control in a reasonable way at the same time. More precisely, we study a long-term average impulse control problem, a stochastic version of the classical Faustmann timber harvesting problem. One of the problems that immediately arises is an exploration-exploitation dilemma as is well known for problems in machine learning. We propose a way to deal with this issue by combining exploration and exploitation periods in a suitable way. Our main finding is that this construction can be based on the rates of convergence of estimators for the invariant density. Using this, we obtain that the average cumulated regret is of uniform order O ( T − 1 / 3 ).