Panel Data Analysis of the Impact of Larger State Size/Land Area on Voter Turnout in US Presidential Elections: 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012

Q4 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Applied Economics Quarterly Pub Date : 2017-07-01 DOI:10.3790/AEQ.63.3.319
R. Cebula
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Abstract

This study has two objectives, both of which seek to provide insights into factors that influenced the voter participation rate in general elections in the US in recent years. The principal objective of this study is to proffer and then empirically investigate the following hypothesis: the voter participation rate of registered voters is reduced by greater state size (in squares miles) because, other things held the same, greater state size increases the transactions costs of voting for many of those persons who prefer to cast a ballot in person rather than by mail. A focus on this variable is unique in the literature. The secondary general objective of this study is to identify other factors that influenced the voter participation rate in recent years. The study adopts a state-level panel dataset and reports both Cross-section Random-effects estimations and dynamic panel estimations (Panel GMM estimates) for the first four US Presidential elections years of the 21st century, i.e., 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012. After allowing for a variety of variables in the model, it is found that a 10,000 square mile greater size for a state in turn implies 0.148%-0.156% lower voter turnout, whereas a 100,000 square mile greater state size implies a 1.48%-1.56% lower voter turnout. Furthermore, the study finds that the voter participation rate of registered voters was an increasing function of six other factors: the unemployment rate, the percent of the population that earned a high school diploma or more, election competitiveness, median family income, and the percentage of the population that was either Afro-American/black or Hispanic/Latin.
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2000年、2004年、2008年和2012年美国总统选举中较大州规模/土地面积对选民投票率影响的面板数据分析
这项研究有两个目标,都试图深入了解近年来影响美国大选选民参与率的因素。本研究的主要目的是提出并实证调查以下假设:登记选民的选民参与率因州规模(平方英里)的增加而降低,因为在其他情况下,州规模的增加增加了许多喜欢亲自投票而不是邮寄投票的人的投票交易成本。对这一变量的关注在文献中是独一无二的。本研究的次要总体目标是确定近年来影响选民参与率的其他因素。该研究采用了州级面板数据集,并报告了21世纪前四个美国总统选举年(即2000年、2004年、2008年和2012年)的横截面随机效应估计和动态面板估计(面板GMM估计)。在考虑了模型中的各种变量后,发现一个州的面积扩大1万平方英里意味着选民投票率降低0.148%-0.156%,而州的面积增加10万平方英里则意味着投票率降低1.48%-1.56%。此外,研究发现,登记选民的选民参与率是其他六个因素的增加函数:失业率、获得高中文凭或以上学历的人口百分比、选举竞争力、家庭收入中位数以及非裔美国人/黑人或西班牙裔/拉丁人的人口百分比。
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Applied Economics Quarterly
Applied Economics Quarterly Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)
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