The future is not what it used to be: the failure of bipolarisation

IF 0.8 4区社会学 Q3 POLITICAL SCIENCE Irish Political Studies Pub Date : 2022-03-07 DOI:10.1080/07907184.2022.2043083

Z. Enyedi, F. Bértoa

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引用次数: 2

Abstract

ABSTRACT Arguably, the most fundamental question one can ask about a party system is whether it is bipolar or not. Based on theoretical conjectures and on tendencies one observed during the 1990s and early 2000s, as well as reflecting the position of the academic community at the time (e.g. [Bale, T. (2003). Cinderella and Her ugly sisters: The mainstream and extreme right in Europe's bipolarising party systems. West European Politics, 26(3), 67–90; Müller, W., & Fallend, F. (2004). Changing patterns of party competition in Austria: From multipolar to bipolar system. West European Politics, 27(5), 801–835]), Peter Mair had a clear prediction: the future of party politics would be bipolar. Using the Who Governs Europe dataset [Casal Bértoa, F., & Enyedi, Z. (2021a). Party system closure: Party alliances, government alternatives, and democracy in Europe. Oxford: Oxford University Press], the article examines the validity of Mair's predictions. Notwithstanding certain exceptions (e.g. Bulgaria, Luxembourg, Serbia), the article demonstrates that the tendency towards increasingly bipolarised party politics has failed to materialise. Next to the description of empirical patterns the article provides suggestions on how to improve our conceptual apparatus of party system analysis.

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未来已今非昔比：两极化的失败

摘要可以说，关于政党制度，人们能问的最基本的问题是它是否具有两极性。基于理论推测和在20世纪90年代和21世纪初观察到的趋势，以及反映当时学术界的立场（例如[Beller，T.（2003）。《灰姑娘和她的丑陋姐妹：欧洲两极政党体系中的主流和极右翼》。《西欧政治》，26（3），67-90；Müller，W.和Fallend，F.（2004）。《奥地利政党竞争的变化模式：从多极到两极体系》。《欧洲政治》，27（5），801–835]），彼得·梅尔有一个明确的预测：政党政治的未来将是两极的。文章使用“谁治理欧洲”数据集[Casal Bértoa，F.，&Enyedi，Z.（2021a）。政党制度关闭：欧洲的政党联盟、政府替代方案和民主。牛津：牛津大学出版社]，检验了梅尔预测的有效性。尽管有某些例外（例如保加利亚、卢森堡、塞尔维亚），文章表明，政党政治日益两极分化的趋势未能实现。在对经验模式进行描述的基础上，本文对如何改进我国政党制度分析的概念机制提出了建议。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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