Interannual variability of ice cover in the Caspian Sea

Abstract

Satellite remote sensing data (SAR and Ocean Color), MERRA-2 reanalysis and records at Astrakhan meteorological station were used to investigate interannual variability of ice cover characteristics in the North Caspian Sea for 23 winter seasons (November 1 – April 15) from 1999/2000 to 2021/2022. The maximum annual ice cover area, ice freeze onset and melt dates and ice cover duration were determined from satellite remote sensing data, mostly SAR instruments on board the European Space Agency’s satellites, ranging from ERS-2 to the Sentinel-1A, -1B tandem. We propose a new band combination for Sentinel-2 MSI and Landsat-8 OLI that allows better distinguishing ice cover from clouds or land than the standard RGB composites. In the absence of SAR data, this method was used to estimate the above mentioned parameters with high spatial and temporal resolution. To assess the severity of winters, the criterion on the basis of the sum of freezing degree-days (SFDD) was applied. For this purpose, we used values of daily minimum air temperature over the North Caspian (44.46°–47.14°N, 46.70–52.90°E), daily mean and daily minimum ones over its coldest eastern part (with the western border at 50°E), obtained from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, as well as data from the meteorological station in Astrakhan (46.35°N, 48.07°E). The resulting SFDD sequences show that until the winter of 2011/2012, there was a cooling trend on average (with noticeable interannual variability), whereas after that winter it changed to warming for Astrakhan and virtually disappeared for the North Caspian and its eastern part. A noticeable interannual variability is also shown by the maximum ice area and the duration of the ice period, both parameters with maximums in the winter of 2011/2012. We discuss in detail the correspondence between the SFDD and ice cover characteristics variations, as well as previously published results. In agreement with the other authors, we find that in the 21st century, compared to the 20th century, the number of very severe and severe winters has decreased, while the number of mild winters has increased.