Investigation of trends in extreme events: a case study of Ceyhan Basin, Turkey

Abstract

Investigation of natural hazards is crucial for regional water management and disaster preparedness. In this study, trends in annual maximum, minimum and average temperature; annual maximum dry season deficit (DS deficit), dry season duration (DS duration), wet season excess rain (WS excess) and wet season duration (WS duration) were examined. The analyses of extreme events were identified by applying the SPI drought index for multiple-time scales of 1-, 3-, 6-month, for meteorological stations located in the Ceyhan Basin, Turkey. While the homogeneity of the data was analyzed with the Wallis-Moore method, trend analysis was performed with the Mann-Kendall test. In addition, the determination of the change-point year was performed with the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT) and Buishand’s Range Test. The findings will be useful to water management decision-makers in the Ceyhan River Basin in assessing the impact of droughts and planning drought mitigation strategies to avoid future drought risks.