The impact of gender on votes for the populist radical rights: Marine Le Pen vs. Eric Zemmour

Abstract

ABSTRACT According to a large body of research, women are less likely than men to vote for radical right parties, a phenomenon termed the ‘Radical Right Gender Gap’ (RRGG). However, recent studies show that the gap varies widely depending on the country considered, the nature of the election, the strategy, and the reputation of the radical right. To study the relationship between gender and radical right populism the French RN (ex FN) chaired since 2011 by a woman, Marine Le Pen, is a good case. In the 2012 and 2017 presidential elections she managed to close the RRGG, attracting as many female and male voters. In the 2022 presidential election, she was challenged on her right by a newcomer, Eric Zemmour, founder of the party Reconquête! (Reconquest!), openly claiming his masculinity. While both clearly belong to the ‘populist radical right’ (PRR) by their nativist, authoritarian and anti-elites stands, they have completely opposite strategies. Marine Le Pen since 2011 is trying to mainstream the party and soften its image, while Zemmour takes a radical and provocative posture. Drawing from electoral surveys on the last three presidential elections (2012–2022), and controlling by sociodemographic and attitudinal variables, I show that the RRGG disappeared for Marine le Pen but persisted for Zemmour.