UNDERSTANDING COVID-19 THROUGH SEIR COMPARTMENT MODEL

Abstract

COVID-19 that has emerged in the end of 2019 has changed the life of mankind across countries in the world Since the cause of COVID-19 is categorized as novel virus, its characteristics and actions have not yet been completely understood Various studies are currently underway to unravel its mystery In perspective of epidemiology, we want to understand COVID-19 through SEIR compartment model The study used secondary data were obtained from Corona Virus Disease Response Acceleration Task Force of Indonesia (https://covid19 go id/) These data included COVID-19 cases reported from the beginning in 2 March 2020 until the 86th day cases were reported The basic reproduction index (R-0) was computed A polynomial regression was applied to obtained coefficients to be included in the available equation Sample of size 30 gave a(0) = 75 767 and a(1) = 284 521 that were significant with p = 0 000 and its polynomial regression model showed R-2 = 0 8825 and adjR(2) = 0 8689 This sample of size gave the better estimate of R-0, it is equal to 3 63