{"title":"Course grades as actionable early warning indicators: predicting high school graduation in an urban school district","authors":"David T. Marshall","doi":"10.1080/1045988X.2022.2028715","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Using administrative data from an urban school district, two series of predictive models were tested for their ability to project a student’s high school graduation status. The models included student grades, attendance, behavior, demographic predictors, and school-level variables. Eighth and ninth-grade variables were tested for two graduation cohorts (n = 2773) and multilevel logistic regression analyses were conducted to analyze the data. Most early warning indicator (EWI) models include end-of-course grades as predictors. This study operationalizes course failure as having failed a single marking period in the eighth grade or having failed a single semester in the ninth grade. Findings offer practitioners an actionable course grades based EWI, allowing for intervention after a single marking period of failure.","PeriodicalId":46774,"journal":{"name":"Preventing School Failure","volume":"66 1","pages":"206 - 213"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2022-01-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Preventing School Failure","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/1045988X.2022.2028715","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"EDUCATION & EDUCATIONAL RESEARCH","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Abstract Using administrative data from an urban school district, two series of predictive models were tested for their ability to project a student’s high school graduation status. The models included student grades, attendance, behavior, demographic predictors, and school-level variables. Eighth and ninth-grade variables were tested for two graduation cohorts (n = 2773) and multilevel logistic regression analyses were conducted to analyze the data. Most early warning indicator (EWI) models include end-of-course grades as predictors. This study operationalizes course failure as having failed a single marking period in the eighth grade or having failed a single semester in the ninth grade. Findings offer practitioners an actionable course grades based EWI, allowing for intervention after a single marking period of failure.
期刊介绍：
Preventing School Failure provides a forum in which to examine critically emerging and evidence-based practices that are both data driven and practical for children and youth in general and alternative education systems. Authors are afforded the opportunity to discuss and debate critical and sometimes controversial issues that affect the education of children and adolescents in various settings. Preventing School Failure is a peer-reviewed academic journal for administrators, educators, mental health workers, juvenile justice and corrections personnel, day and residential treatment personnel, staff-development specialists, teacher educators, and others. Our goal is to share authoritative and timely information with a wide-ranging audience dedicated to serving children and adolescents in general education, special education, and alternative education programs. We accept for review manuscripts that contain critical and integrated literature reviews, objective program evaluations, evidence-based strategies and procedures, program descriptions, and policy-related content. As appropriate, manuscripts should contain enough detail that readers are able to put useful or innovative strategies or procedures into practice.
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