From industry-wide parameters to aircraft-centric on-flight inference: Improving aeronautics performance prediction with machine learning

IF 2.4 Q3 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE DataCentric Engineering Pub Date : 2020-05-11 DOI:10.1017/dce.2020.12
F. Dewez, Benjamin Guedj, V. Vandewalle
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Abstract Aircraft performance models play a key role in airline operations, especially in planning a fuel-efficient flight. In practice, manufacturers provide guidelines which are slightly modified throughout the aircraft life cycle via the tuning of a single factor, enabling better fuel predictions. However, this has limitations, in particular, they do not reflect the evolution of each feature impacting the aircraft performance. Our goal here is to overcome this limitation. The key contribution of the present article is to foster the use of machine learning to leverage the massive amounts of data continuously recorded during flights performed by an aircraft and provide models reflecting its actual and individual performance. We illustrate our approach by focusing on the estimation of the drag and lift coefficients from recorded flight data. As these coefficients are not directly recorded, we resort to aerodynamics approximations. As a safety check, we provide bounds to assess the accuracy of both the aerodynamics approximation and the statistical performance of our approach. We provide numerical results on a collection of machine learning algorithms. We report excellent accuracy on real-life data and exhibit empirical evidence to support our modeling, in coherence with aerodynamics principles. Impact Statement Current airline operations in both flight preparation (on-ground) and flight management (in-air) are mainly based on the performance of an aircraft. For instance, a trajectory is set before the flight and managed in-air by the Flight Management System using the manufacturer’s performance model. This numerical model is calibrated during in-service period using monitoring systems developed by manufacturers. However, the calibration is based on the tuning of a single parameter, and this overly simplified modeling leads to a lack of precision in optimizing fuel consumption. In this paper, we propose performance models that take into account real flight conditions and switch from industry-wide to aircraft-centric calibration of relevant parameters. To do this, we use massive collections of in-air data recorded by the Quick Access Recorder, which reflect the actual behavior of the aircraft. We then resort to machine learning algorithms to learn sufficiently accurate models from this data to infer the actual performance of the aircraft. The present paper describes our overall approach and its application to predicting the lift and drag coefficients. Bounds for the prediction errors are provided to assess the accuracy of the models. We aim at a twofold impact: (a) improve on the inference of in-flight parameters to optimize trajectories (e.g., regarding fuel consumption) and (b) provide a principled data-centric modeling approach which could be replicated in other intensive data-generating industries.
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从全行业参数到以飞机为中心的飞行推理:利用机器学习改进航空性能预测
摘要飞机性能模型在航空公司运营中发挥着关键作用,尤其是在规划节能飞行时。在实践中,制造商提供的指导方针在整个飞机生命周期中通过调整单个因素进行轻微修改,从而实现更好的燃料预测。然而,这有局限性,特别是,它们不能反映影响飞机性能的每个特征的演变。我们的目标是克服这一限制。本文的主要贡献是促进使用机器学习来利用飞机在飞行过程中连续记录的大量数据,并提供反映其实际和个人性能的模型。我们通过专注于从记录的飞行数据中估计阻力和升力系数来说明我们的方法。由于这些系数没有直接记录,我们采用空气动力学近似值。作为一种安全检查,我们提供了边界来评估空气动力学近似的准确性和我们方法的统计性能。我们提供了一组机器学习算法的数值结果。我们报告了真实数据的卓越准确性,并展示了经验证据来支持我们的建模,符合空气动力学原理。影响声明当前航空公司在飞行准备(地面)和飞行管理(空中)方面的运营主要基于飞机的性能。例如,在飞行前设置轨迹,并由飞行管理系统使用制造商的性能模型在空中进行管理。该数值模型在使用期间使用制造商开发的监测系统进行校准。然而,校准是基于单个参数的调整,这种过于简化的建模导致优化油耗缺乏精度。在本文中,我们提出了考虑真实飞行条件的性能模型,并将相关参数的校准从全行业转向以飞机为中心。为了做到这一点,我们使用快速访问记录器记录的大量空中数据,这些数据反映了飞机的实际行为。然后,我们求助于机器学习算法,从这些数据中学习足够准确的模型,以推断飞机的实际性能。本文介绍了我们的整体方法及其在预测升力系数和阻力系数方面的应用。提供预测误差的边界以评估模型的准确性。我们的目标是产生双重影响:(a)改进飞行参数的推断,以优化轨迹(例如,关于燃料消耗);(b)提供一种原则性的以数据为中心的建模方法,可以在其他密集型数据生成行业中复制。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
DataCentric Engineering
DataCentric Engineering Engineering-General Engineering
CiteScore
5.60
自引率
0.00%
发文量
26
审稿时长
12 weeks
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