Reflections On the Use of Complexity-Appropriate Computational Modeling for Public Policy Evaluation in the UK

Abstract

In the UK, calls for the application of insights from the study of complex adaptive systems to public policy evaluation are beginning to be taken seriously in government. Policymakers and analysts are accepting the fallibility of overly simplistic, definitive, or linear analysis, or are finding traditional forms of analysis and evidence less appropriate or feasible. Through our work in CECAN (the Centre for the Evaluation of Complexity Across the Nexus), we reflect on our experiences and the practical challenges of using complexity-appropriate computational modeling with policy analysts and evaluators in UK central government. As an example, we discuss our work with the COMPLEX-IT toolkit, which uses a selection of case-based computational modeling approaches. We end by suggesting ways forward for applied complexity scientists, and policy evaluators and analysts to make more effective use of these methods.