Oil Price Fluctuation, Business and Economic Growth Effect: Evidence from Nigeria

Abstract

Nigeria’s economic and business climate vulnerabilities are largely instigated by oil price fluctuation through oil market and production alterations. The study scrutinises oil price fluctuation symmetric effect on the business climate, economic growth and macroeconomic indicators using daily data from 2012 – 2022. To accomplish this goal, the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodologies were adopted and incorporated to examine the long-short-run symmetric effect using realised volatility as an indicator of oil price fluctuation. Findings revealed long-short run persistent oil price shock effect on macroeconomic indicators, economic growth and business climate. To reduce the oil demand-supply chain risk exposure and disruption. Economic diversification and investments in trade and non-trade sectors are recommended. A significant nexus between oil prices and macroeconomic indicators was observed using the SVAR model when there is shocks in oil price.