Understanding pattern scaling errors across a range of emissions pathways

Abstract

Abstract. The regional climate impacts of hypothetical future emissions scenarios can be estimated by combining Earth system model simulations with a linear pattern scaling model such as MESMER (Modular Earth System Model Emulator with spatially Resolved output), which uses estimated patterns of the local response per degree of global temperature change. Here we use the mean trend component of MESMER to emulate the regional pattern of the surface temperature response based on historical single-forcer and future Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) simulations. Errors in the emulations for selected target scenarios (SSP1–1.9, SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5) are decomposed into two components, namely (1) the differences in scaling patterns between scenarios as a consequence of varying combinations of external forcings and (2) the intrinsic time series differences between the local and global responses in the target scenario. The time series error is relatively small for high-emissions scenarios, contributing around 20 % of the total error, but is similar in magnitude to the pattern error for lower-emissions scenarios. This irreducible time series error limits the efficacy of linear pattern scaling for emulating strong mitigation pathways and reduces the dependence on the predictor pattern used. The results help guide the choice of predictor scenarios for simple climate models and where to target for the introduction of other dependent variables beyond global surface temperature into pattern scaling models.