Potential Distribution of Five Native Grass Species in Northern Mexico and their Dynamics due to Climate Variability

Abstract

ABSTRACT Grasslands are recognized as the most threatened communities on the planet due to environmental and anthropogenic disturbances. In the state of Chihuahua, Mexico, native grasslands have a great ecological importance due to their wide distribution; however, studies on the current and future potential distributions of grasslands, as well as their temporal dynamics based on climatic variability, are lacking. Thus, we analysed the potential distribution of five native grasses (Bouteloua curtipendula, Bouteloua gracilis, Leptochloa dubia, Digitaria californica and Setaria macrostachya) based on climatic factors. The present data of these species were consulted at the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and recorded with location information: latitude and longitude. This database was complemented with presence data of the five species from previous studies. To characterize the climate niche, the values of the climatic factors at the locations of the species presence, were obtained from the WorldClim. Then, current and future potential distributions of these native species, were generated based on three climate change scenarios, based on Representative Concentration Pathways - RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0). Under the RCP2.6 scenario, the estimated area of S. macrostachya was 12,525.5 ha, representing 7.4% of the state. For B. gracilis, the potential areas under the RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 scenarios were 20,391.49 and 23,079.08 ha, respectively. B. curtipendula represented the smallest area, with 4.6% under the scenario RCP2.6. The distribution of grassland species in northern Mexico is mainly determined by climatic factors; as it may apply for the rest of the grassland species within this area, so those results could increase our knowledge about their potential distribution.