A Multiscale Four-dimensional Variational Data Assimilation Scheme: A Squall Line Case Study

Abstract

This study presents a multiscale four-dimensional variational data assimilation (MS-4DVar) scheme that aims to assimilate multiscale information from conventional and radar observations. The MS-4DVar scheme separately assimilates conventional and radar data in different outer loop iterations of an incremental 4DVar with varied resolutions in the tangent linear and adjoint models (TLM/ADM) and time window lengths in the 4DVar. The MS-4DVar scheme was evaluated through a series of single observation tests and several cycled assimilation and forecasting experiments for a real squall line case. Our results indicated that different TLM/ADM resolutions and time window lengths applied to the conventional and radar observations improved the multiscale analysis. In addition, the MS-4DVar scheme was more efficient than the common 4DVar because of the low-resolution TLM/ADM used for conventional data and the shortened time window length for radar data. Verification of the squall line forecasts suggested that the MS-4DVar scheme improved the hourly accumulated precipitation and radar reflectivity forecast skills and reduced the forecast errors of both largescale environmental and convective-scale states. Further diagnosis revealed that the improvement of precipitation forecast skill was attributable to the stronger cold pool, deeper saturated water vapor layer, and stronger updraft of the simulated squall line system, as well as a more favorable convective environment.