MODELLING SYSTEM DYNAMICS TO EVALUATE URBAN WATER SUPPLY MANAGEMENT AND PRODUCTION OF FUTURE SCENARIOS

Abstract

This paper analyzes, evaluates and simulates a water catchment and consumption process using a system dynamics model to support water resources management. After creating a theoretical model, real data from São Carlos in Brazil were used. The water availability situation was assessed using the catchment data analysis of the main surface and groundwater sources and the supply data, subdivided into four categories of use. Simulations were carried out by evaluating historical data and further simulations of future scenarios. The average annual consumption was 15.8 million m3. The volume of water catchment in 2017 was more than 35 million m³, and from this total 43.5% of treated water was wasted due to losses. Domestic consumption accounts for more than 80% of the total and greywater reuse can reduce this impact, which means economizing approximately 9 million m3/year. Modeling allows decision makers to analyze the evolution of parameters and the scenario projection.