Influence of CPEC–Flagship of Belt and Road Initiative on the agricultural trade of China

Majid Lateef, M. Riaz
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study investigates the potential impact of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on its agricultural exports. A gravity model was formulated to find the determinants of China’s agricultural exports. This model uses two measures of distance: Model 1A uses the great-circle measure of distance and Model 1B uses the existing real distance used between China and its trade partners. The determinants of both models are then used to simulate China’s pre-CPEC export potential in agricultural products. The results of Model 1B are then simulated, using the proposed real distance values to calculate China’s post-CPEC agricultural export potential. The findings for pre-CPEC exports show that a strong potential for agricultural exports exists for African, Middle Eastern, and other countries. The findings for post-CPEC trade show that there will be a tremendous increase in the export potential for African and Middle Eastern countries that can be attributed to BRI.
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“一带一路”倡议倡议旗舰CPEC对中国农产品贸易的影响
摘要本研究探讨了“一带一路”倡议对中国农产品出口的潜在影响。我们建立了一个引力模型来寻找中国农产品出口的决定因素。该模型使用两种距离度量:模型1A使用距离的大圆度量,模型1B使用中国与其贸易伙伴之间现有的实际距离。然后使用这两个模型的决定因素来模拟中国在cpec之前的农产品出口潜力。然后对模型1B的结果进行模拟,使用提出的实际距离值来计算中国后中巴经济走廊的农业出口潜力。对中巴经济走廊前出口的调查结果表明,非洲、中东和其他国家的农产品出口存在巨大潜力。对中巴经济走廊后贸易的调查结果表明,非洲和中东国家的出口潜力将大幅增加,这可归因于“一带一路”。
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CiteScore
4.50
自引率
5.00%
发文量
22
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