The use of disaggregated demand information to improve forecasts and stock allocation during sales promotions: a simulation and optimisation study using supermarket loyalty card data

IF 0.6 Q4 MANAGEMENT International Journal of Value Chain Management Pub Date : 2019-10-17 DOI:10.1504/ijvcm.2019.10024744

S. Malik, A. Fearne, J. O’Hanley

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引用次数: 2

Abstract

Our work highlights the importance of using disaggregated demand information at store level to improve sales forecasts and stock allocation during sales promotions. Monte Carlo simulation and optimisation modelling were used to estimate short-term promotional impacts. Supermarket loyalty card data was used from a major UK retailer to identify the benefits of using disaggregated demand data for improved forecasting and stock allocation. The results suggest that there is a high degree of heterogeneity in demand at individual store level due to number of factors including the weather, the characteristics of shoppers, the characteristics of products and store format, all of which conspire to generate significant variation in promotional uplifts. The paper is the first to use supermarket loyalty card data to generate store level promotional forecasts and quantify the benefits of disaggregating the allocation of promotional stock to the level of individual stores rather than regional distribution centres.

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使用分类需求信息改善促销期间的预测和库存分配：使用超市忠诚卡数据的模拟和优化研究

我们的工作强调了在商店层面使用分类需求信息的重要性，以改进促销期间的销售预测和库存分配。蒙特卡洛模拟和优化建模用于估计短期促销影响。英国一家大型零售商的超市忠诚度卡数据用于确定使用分类需求数据改善预测和库存分配的好处。结果表明，由于天气、购物者的特征、产品的特征和商店形式等多种因素，单个商店层面的需求存在高度的异质性，所有这些因素共同导致促销提升的显著变化。该论文首次使用超市忠诚卡数据生成商店级促销预测，并量化将促销库存分配分解到单个商店而非区域配送中心的好处。

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来源期刊

International Journal of Value Chain Management MANAGEMENT-

CiteScore

1.20

自引率

12.50%

发文量

期刊介绍： Today"s businesses have become extremely complex. The interplay of the three Cs, viz. consumers, competition and convergence, has thrown up new challenges for organisations all over the world. Sensitivity of economies to the external environment coupled with the turbulent process of globalisation has added the highest degree of uncertainty and unpredictability to business processes. To top it all, the effect of globalisation has shifted the balance of power in favour of the customer, though it may have opened a plethora of opportunities for all, in the form of variety and choice. For a variety of reasons, the pressures of competitive forces have enhanced product changes, supercharged by shortening product and technology development lifecycles.