Implications of Delayed Reopening in Controlling the COVID-19 Surge in Southern and West-Central USA

Raj Dandekar, Emma Wang, G. Barbastathis, Chris Rackauckas
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

In the wake of the rapid surge in the Covid-19 infected cases seen in Southern and West-Central USA in the period of June-July 2020, there is an urgent need to develop robust, data-driven models to quantify the effect which early reopening had on the infected case count increase. In particular, it is imperative to address the question: How many infected cases could have been prevented, had the worst affected states not reopened early? To address this question, we have developed a novel Covid-19 model by augmenting the classical SIR epidemiological model with a neural network module. The model decomposes the contribution of quarantine strength to the infection timeseries, allowing us to quantify the role of quarantine control and the associated reopening policies in the US states which showed a major surge in infections. We show that the upsurge in the infected cases seen in these states is strongly co-related with a drop in the quarantine/lockdown strength diagnosed by our model. Further, our results demonstrate that in the event of a stricter lockdown without early reopening, the number of active infected cases recorded on 14 July could have been reduced by more than 40% in all states considered, with the actual number of infections reduced being more than 100,000 for the states of Florida and Texas. As we continue our fight against Covid-19, our proposed model can be used as a valuable asset to simulate the effect of several reopening strategies on the infected count evolution; for any region under consideration.
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延迟重新开放对控制美国南部和中西部新冠肺炎疫情激增的影响
2020年6月至7月期间,美国南部和中西部的新冠肺炎感染病例迅速激增,因此迫切需要开发强大的数据驱动模型,以量化提前重新开放对感染病例数增加的影响。特别是,必须解决这样一个问题:如果受影响最严重的州没有提前重新开放,有多少感染病例可以预防?为了解决这个问题,我们通过用神经网络模块增强经典的SIR流行病学模型,开发了一种新的新冠肺炎模型。该模型分解了隔离强度对感染时间序列的贡献,使我们能够量化美国各州隔离控制的作用和相关的重新开放政策,这些州的感染人数大幅增加。我们表明,这些州感染病例的激增与我们的模型诊断的隔离/封锁强度的下降密切相关。此外,我们的研究结果表明,如果在没有提前重新开放的情况下实施更严格的封锁,7月14日记录的所有州的活跃感染病例数本可以减少40%以上,佛罗里达州和得克萨斯州的实际感染人数减少了10万以上。随着我们继续抗击新冠肺炎,我们提出的模型可以作为一种宝贵的资产来模拟几种重新开放策略对感染人数演变的影响;对于任何正在考虑的地区。
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