Maine’s Changing Demographics: Implications for Workforce, Economy, and Policy

Abstract

The fundamental purpose of any policy is to safeguard and improve the well-being of people. The understanding of any policy decision, therefore, must start with an understanding of demographics. This article reviews Maine’s demographics using data from the 1820 and 1920 censuses and comparing them to recent population estimates. The author finds trends that persist over time as well as ways in which Maine’s demographics have changed over the past 200 years. As 2019 ended and 2020 began, Maine saw its largest challenges as being related to the current demographic situation: slow population growth, limited available workforce, and increased demand for healthcare services. With the spread of COVID-19 throughout the state, Maine is now facing a public health crisis and economic recession the likes of which haven’t been seen in a century. around 1 percent was engaged in commerce for both Maine and the United States; and around 3 percent was engaged in manufactures, compared to 4 percent for the nation. (US Census Bureau 1821). By 1920, Maine’s total population had increased more than 150 percent to 768,014, but this was only 0.7 percent of the US total, which had increased nearly 1,000 percent. Maine ranked thirty-fifth for population among the 48 states. Around 28 percent of the population was age 45 or older, compared to around 21 percent of the US population—life expectancies had increased substantially since 1820. The 1920 census collected considerably more detail than the 1820 census did and published many different tables and reports, including information on citizenship, immigration, illiteracy, child labor, home ownership, and irrigation and drainage, among other topics. The census included six different options for “color or race”: “white,” “negro,” “Indian,” “Chinese,” “Japanese,” and “all other.” Despite the increase in categories, Maine’s population remained 99.7 percent white. However, 14 percent of Maine’s population was “foreign born” with another 21 percent being “native white” of “foreign” or “mixed” parentage (meaning born in the United States to either one or both parents of foreign birth). Maine’s population density was now less than the that of the United States: 25.7 people per square mile vs 35.5 for the nation. Maine’s 16 counties had roughly the boundaries we know today, and the population was somewhat more dispersed: the southern and coastal portions combined to around 54 percent of the total population. Portland was still the state’s largest city, with a population that had increased around 700 percent to 69,272. Around 10 percent of the population was engaged in agriculture, both in Maine and in the United States; around 16 percent in manufacturing in Maine and 12 percent in the United States; and around 4 percent in trade in both Maine and the nation (US Census Bureau 1922). Jumping ahead another 100 years to the present day, Maine’s total population has increased another 75 percent—half the rate of growth as in the previous century—to around 1.344 million people. This is just 0.4 percent of the US total, which has increased another 200 percent, making Maine the forty-second most populous state in the country. Half Maine’s population is age 45 or older, compared to around 42 percent of the US population. The 2019 population estimate for Maine shows 93 percent of the population as “white alone, non-Hispanic.” While this reflects an apparent increase in racial and ethnic diversity (it is hard to be certain given the changing definitions for racial and ethnic categories over time), Maine has the highest percentage of “white alone, non-Hispanic” population in the country. Maine’s population per square mile is 43.6, less than half the 92.9 of the nation’s population density. Around two-thirds of the state’s population again lives in the southern and coastal regions. Portland remains the state’s largest city, but the population has decreased from the 1920 census count to around 66,000 today. Less than 1 percent of the population is engaged in farming, fishing, and forestry in both Maine and the United States; less than 3 percent in production in both Maine and the United States; and around 5 percent in sales in both Maine and the nation. Some trends emerge when considering figures from 1820, 1920, and 2020. Since the beginning, Maine’s population has grown more slowly than the nation’s, and while population density has increased, Maine has become relatively less densely populated than the rest of the country. Life expectancies have increased over time, leading to increases in the percentage of the population 45 and older, but the aging of the baby boom generation (born between 1946 and 1964) is causing Maine’s population to age faster than that of the rest of the United States. Maine’s population is more racially and ethnically diverse than ever, but that diversity has only improved slightly from centuries past. Portland has been Maine’s largest city all along, but Portland’s population peaked in 1950, at the start of a postWorld War II national exodus from cities to suburbs. The city’s population has stabilized since then, but the sprawl into outlying communities was dramatic. Participation in the labor force has changed substantially over the past 200 years. While children often were working in the nation’s earlier years, children and many young adults today are in school rather than in the workforce. At the other end of the age spectrum, retirement has become more common since the Social Security Act passed in 1935. Starting in the 1970s, Maine’s labor force participation rate rose steadily for more than a decade as women MAINE POLICY REVIEW • Vol. 29, No. 2 • 2020 99 MAINE’S CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS