A Difference Equation Model of Infectious Disease

Abstract

In the context of so much uncertainty with coronavirus variants and official mandate based on seemingly exaggerated predictions of gloom from epidemiologists, it is appropriate to consider a revised model of relative simplicity, because there can be dangers in developing models which endeavour to account for too many variables. Predictions and projections from any such models have to be in the context of relevant contingencies. The model presented here is based on relatively simple second order difference equations. The context here is as important as the content in that in many Western counties where the narrative currently seems more important than the truth, and the results of empirical science are valued more as a shield for politicians than a sword for protection of citizens.