Trends in State and Local Pension Funds

IF 5 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Annual Review of Financial Economics Pub Date : 2023-05-17 DOI:10.1146/annurev-financial-110921-022054
Oliver Giesecke, Joshua D. Rauh
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引用次数: 4

Abstract

Unfunded public pension obligations represent the largest liability for state and local governments in the United States. As of fiscal year 2021, the total reported unfunded liabilities of these plans is $1.076 trillion. In contrast, the market value of the unfunded liability is approximately $6.501 trillion. As a result, the reported funding ratio of 82.5% falls to 43.8% under a market-based valuation. The market values reflect the fact that accrued pension promises are a form of government debt with strong statutory and contractual rights. The assumed discount rates are based on expected returns and remain elevated relative to risk-free rates, despite a decline since 2014. As a result, not only is the unfunded pension liability understated, but the yearly pension cost for newly accruing liabilities is also understated. In order to achieve high returns, pension funds have accumulated large exposure to risky assets, in particular alternative investments, which results in highly uncertain investment returns. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Financial Economics, Volume 15 is November 2023. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
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国家和地方养老基金的趋势
没有资金的公共养老金义务是美国州和地方政府的最大负债。截至2021财年,这些计划报告的无资金负债总额为1.076万亿美元。相比之下,无资金负债的市场价值约为6.501万亿美元。因此,在基于市场的估值下,报告的82.5%的资金比率降至43.8%。市场价值反映了这样一个事实,即应计养老金承诺是一种具有强大法定和合同权利的政府债务。假设的贴现率基于预期回报,相对于无风险利率仍然较高,尽管自2014年以来有所下降。因此,不仅没有资金的养老金负债被低估了,而且新累积负债的年度养老金成本也被低估了。为了实现高回报,养老基金积累了大量风险资产,特别是另类投资,这导致了高度不确定的投资回报。《金融经济学年度评论》第15卷预计最终在线出版日期为2023年11月。请参阅http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates用于修订估算。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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0.00%
发文量
26
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