Risk prioritisation using fuzzy analytic network process: A case of Addis–Djibouti railway construction project

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to develop a risk assessment model to prioritise the risks of railway construction projects. A fuzzy analytic network process (FANP) is employed to rank project risks based on the likelihood of project risks and their impact on cost and time. Fuzzy set theory is used to represent the vagueness in each expert's judgment, while ANP is used to deal with interdependence and feedback effects of risks. The data for this study was collected through literature reviews, interviews, and questionnaires. According to the study results, the right-of-way corresponds to the top risk that has highest impact on time and cost. Construction errors and incomplete contract details were found to rank second and third in terms of risk severity. Similarly, design changes and lack of coordination among parties are ranked fourth and fifth, respectively. The study results help practitioners and decision-makers understand the main risks of the Ethiopian railway construction projects and take proactive actions accordingly. Furthermore, this paper can help researchers' model project risks and analyse their impact on project objectives considering uncertainty, interdependence, and feedback.