Emission projections and limit values of air pollution concentration - a case study using the EMEP4PL model

Abstract

In this study, we applied the EMEP/MSC-W model at a high spatial resolution of 4 km × 4 km over Poland (EMEP4PL), and ran the model for the whole of the years 2015 and 2030. For the second simulation we used GAINS PRIMES emission projection and kept the meteorology from 2015. Although the model results are satisfactory and comparable to the results in other European countries, the number of days with exceedances of the limit value is highly underestimated in comparison to observations for 2015. It shows that the model is limited in its simulation of very high particulate matter concentrations in the winter season. Therefore, we applied a bias correction for the year 2030 based on the observations and model results for the year 2015. Bias corrected simulation shows that at 60 stations (out of 104), the PM10 daily limit value will be exceeded at least 35 times in 2030.