The impact of COVID-19 epidemic on the radical behavior and armed conflict escalation risks

IF 0.2 Q4 POLITICAL SCIENCE International Journal of Cyber Warfare and Terrorism Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI:10.4018/ijcwt.298701
Y. Kostyuchenko, V. Pushkar, O. Malysheva, M. Yuschenko
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Abstract

The paper considers the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic to the behavior of militants of illegal armed groups and the population in the militant-controlled territories. The study was conducted on the example of the territories of self-proclaimed “L/DPR” within Donbass (Eastern Ukraine) in the period March-May 2020. Based on the analysis of social networks and media, the main narratives related to the perception of threats of epidemic were identified and analyzed. Its prevalence and dynamics among the militants and population in comparison with radical groups and population of Ukraine was analyzed. The main types of moods and emotions that were associated with the perception of epidemic were identified. The management decisions of the “L/DPR” leaders during the epidemic were analyzed. It was found that the measures of militant's “authorities” were not aimed to protecting population, but to social management - channeling aggression and propaganda discourse constructing.
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新冠肺炎疫情对激进行为和武装冲突升级风险的影响
本文考虑了新冠肺炎疫情对非法武装团体武装分子行为和武装分子控制地区民众的影响。该研究是以2020年3月至5月期间顿巴斯(乌克兰东部)境内自称“L/DPR”的领土为例进行的。基于对社交网络和媒体的分析,确定并分析了与流行病威胁感知相关的主要叙事。与乌克兰激进组织和人口相比,分析了其在武装分子和人口中的流行率和动态。确定了与流行病感知相关的主要情绪和情绪类型。分析了“L/DPR”领导在疫情期间的管理决策。研究发现,激进分子“当局”的措施并不是为了保护人口,而是为了社会管理——引导侵略和宣传话语建构。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.80
自引率
40.00%
发文量
20
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