How are goals born? External and internal factors in European soccer

Abstract

This research studied by means of linear regression models which factors that most influence the achievement of points and goals in eight European leagues in the 2019-2020 season. In order to analyse the points obtained, external variables such as budget, stadium attendance, squad experience, fair play, or whether the players are foreign, national, home-grown or belong to an international team, were taken into account. For the goals, internal or match-specific variables such as shots, scoring chances, corner kicks, number of cards, faults, ball possession, dribbles, tackles, presence or absence of crowd and the pitch factor, were used. The results revealed the importance of budget and fair play, as well as scoring chances and shots. The presence of the public and the pitch factor had hardly any influence. The external factors show regression models with an adjusted R2 between 0.508 and 0.916, while in the case of internal factors range between 0.289 and 0.464. The data may be of relevance for improving transfer investment strategies, as well as for increasing the performance of training sessions, tactics and line-ups.