Modeling trade openness–unemployment nexus in sub-Saharan Africa: the role of asymmetries

Abdallah Abdul-Mumuni, Kwaku Amakye, Abdul-Lateef Abukari, Michael Insaidoo
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Abstract

PurposeWhile several existing panel studies have focused on the linear specifications of the nexus between trade openness and unemployment, nonlinear panel studies on this subject remain less explored. This paper examines the asymmetric nexus between trade openness and unemployment in 34 selected sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries for the period spanning from 1991 to 2020.Design/methodology/approachThe Pedroni and Westerlund panel cointegration tests were conducted to ascertain a long run relationship among the studied variables, while the panel nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach was applied to account for asymmetries.FindingsThe study revealed among other things that trade openness asymmetrically influences unemployment in the selected panel of SSA countries. In the long run, the positive shock in trade openness on unemployment is greater as compared to the negative shock.Research limitations/implicationsThe implications of this study include the need to (1) ensure the effective monitoring and supervision of trade flows in the sub-region so that their full benefits are maximized in terms of job creation and (2) ensure that a positive trade balance is maintained in the selected SSA countries.Originality/valueThe positive and negative shocks in trade openness are examined to determine their asymmetric effects on unemployment.
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撒哈拉以南非洲贸易开放与失业关系的建模:不对称的作用
虽然一些现有的小组研究侧重于贸易开放与失业之间关系的线性规范,但关于这一主题的非线性小组研究仍然较少探索。本文选取撒哈拉以南非洲34个国家为研究对象,考察了1991年至2020年期间贸易开放与失业之间的不对称关系。设计/方法/方法采用Pedroni和Westerlund面板协整检验来确定研究变量之间的长期关系,而面板非线性自回归分布滞后方法则用于解释不对称性。研究结果表明,在SSA选定的国家中,贸易开放对失业率的影响是不对称的。从长期来看,贸易开放对失业的正面冲击大于负面冲击。本研究的意义包括需要(1)确保对分区域的贸易流动进行有效监测和监督,以便在创造就业方面最大限度地发挥贸易流动的全部效益;(2)确保在所选的SSA国家保持积极的贸易平衡。考察了贸易开放的正冲击和负冲击,以确定它们对失业的不对称影响。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.20
自引率
7.70%
发文量
41
期刊介绍: African Journal of Economic and Management Studies (AJEMS) advances both theoretical and empirical research, informs policies and practices, and improves understanding of how economic and business decisions shape the lives of Africans. AJEMS is a multidisciplinary journal and welcomes papers from all the major disciplines in economics, business and management studies.
期刊最新文献
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