Exploring the effect of COVID-19 on driver injury severities in freeway single-vehicle crashes accounting for unobserved heterogeneity

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic, characterized by travel restrictions and reduced traffic volumes, heightened the risk of severe single-vehicle crashes on Florida's freeways. This study utilized random parameter multinomial logit models, accounting for heterogeneity in means and variances, to analyze driver injury severities in 2020 and compare variations in the magnitude of factors contributed to these injuries across different freeway systems. The estimated models identified 31 statistically significant variables across Florida's major freeways (I-4, I-10, I-75, and I-95). Among these variables, only two—normal driving and restraint usage—were statistically significant across all four freeway systems. Moreover, the model results indicated that factors contributing to severe driver injuries were most prominent on I-95 compared to the other freeways in 2020. These findings improve our understanding of freeway safety measures during a pandemic and provide valuable insights to enhance traffic management strategies for state highway agencies, prioritizing operational safety in potential future pandemics.