Smart cities in the time of climate change and Covid-19 need digital twins

Abstract

Pre-Covid there was the beginnings of a coalescence around Climate Change as the overarching aim of advanced urban digital transformation. Climate change is a wicked problem with no silver bullet but there is one arena that adversely affects climate change more than any other; cities.

Only 29% of the world is land, cities currently occupy 3% of that representing 0.9% of the earth surface. Buildings occupy between 70 and 80% of every city and we spend 87% of our life in them. Buildings, a tiny percentage of the planet, consume 75% of world electricity, 40% of global energy, are responsible for 40% of the total GHG emissions, consume 25% of the global water supply and generate 40% of total solid waste.

The problem is only going to get worse as more people move to cities for economic, social, or conflict reasons. Roughly 50% of the world population of 7.7 billion people lives in cities and it is predicted to rise to 70% by 2050; this could create another 5000 cities. The greatest rise in urbanisation will take place in the developing world, which is the least well equipped to deal with issues of pollution, energy, air quality, water shortages, waste, transport, health and civil resilience. The focus on Climate has now been usurped by the effect Covid has had on the world economy and how we live and work in Cities, but an answer to both is we need cities to work smarter and to do that we need to understand them better.

In the developed world there is a plethora of technologies now reaching the market. Proptech, Plantech, Digital twins, VR & AR, Ledger technologies, 5G, AI and Deep Learning, Data Exchanges and Edge Computing that will shape citizen engagement, economic growth and physical infrastructure, but we also need the basic infrastructure of power, water and connectivity in the developing world. Currently, the new enabling technologies are still siloed into point solutions with companies developing single technology value propositions around AI, proptech, Ledger et al. Whatever our working definition of what comprises ‘smart’, the market is maturing into IoT platforms where hardware captures data and software analyses it. To enable us to turn data into information allowing insight to inform impact we also need to share information in an appropriate way and surface it in the most accessible manner possible. We are capturing ever-increasing amounts of data, but our ability to share it with the correct checks and balances is problematic. This will have to change and there is an increasing need for Data Trust models that allow us to synthesise data, and Digital Twinning; where we create a virtual replica of the physical and can feed real time information into the model allowing scenario planning and the meshing of soft and hard data that creates a narrative around arenas such as Health, Wellbeing and Mobility. This leverages the new disruptive technologies mentioned above, allowing city authorities agile and informed decision making while facilitating the sharing of information between the public and private sectors. As such, it creates a market for enabling technologies while informing growth in the city.

One of the things I noticed when working in the planning department of a local authority in the distant past was that if I used words to explain something I wanted to do, I would be met with blank faces and disinterest. However, if I produced a schematic, plan or map the whole atmosphere changed. Tables were cleared, eyes lit up, erstwhile disinterest turned into enthusiasm. You get the same affect with architects, engineers and developers. These are people who think visually. Nowadays, the same can be seen with the new sorcerers of IoT; data scientists and AI specialists and is the reasons why Digital Twins are both attractive and effective.

We create so much data, most of which is binary, we need a way to make it talk to us. Maps, charts et al. gave us a two-dimensional view and models gave us a static 3D representation. Related information- reports, impact assessments, development strategies and the rest were created by the kilo then sealed in PDFs and only read by, well, nobody. My planning department experience was 30 years ago, and the stunning thing is the industry hasn't changed. This is still the way we do master planning. We have moved on through CAD and BIM, but the overall process is the same, still frustrated by the inaccessibility of information entombed in PDFs. The above is all the more disappointing given we are well into the 4th Industrial revolution, characterized by a fusion of technologies that is blurring the lines between the physical, digital, and biological spheres. This is where Digital Twins come into their own.

A simple definition of a digital twin is that is a digital model of a physical asset, which continuously collects information (via sensors, drones or other IoT and IIoT data collection tools) and applies advanced analytics, machine-learning and artificial intelligence (AI) to gain valuable real-time insights about the physical asset's performance, operation or profitability. In essence, you create a 3D model of a physical entity and populate it with data allowing you manage the physical entity but also to run scenario planning for predicative insight. You now have an accessible oracle for planners, developers, officials, politicians and citizens to share information and contribute to the future of smart communities. The importance of this new way of tracking how people move through cities and buildings is a tool we can use to ameliorate the challenges of Covid-19. A recent Forbes article predicted that a post-coronavirus future will include more contactless interfaces and interactions, strengthened digital infrastructure, better monitoring and use of IoT and Big Data, AI-enabled development, and an increased reliance on robots. Put simply, the trend will be towards virtualization and digitalization in all industries, and Digital Twin-making will pave the road to virtualization and digitalization in the building industry. More online meetings, less travel; more shared, flexible workspaces, fewer assigned physical spaces; more operational data collection via IOT sensors, less manual reporting; more AI-enabled analysis, less guesswork; more maintenance tasks performed by robots, less manual intervention. Building sensors will monitor the temperature of people both within and without the building and can tell if groups are forming without the concomitant social distancing, allowing messages to be sent asking that groups disperse. Apps can be used to identify and book desk and room slots before arrival in buildings and can track people and infection blooms allowing Authorities the ability to see the spread of contagion and respond accordingly.

Arguably, there is a recognised three-step plan to build successful advanced urban infrastructure in the 21st Century city. Firstly, through consultation, agree a set of open outcomes and time frame. Secondly, work out what people will have to do differently (enabled by what technology) to achieve those outcomes. Thirdly, define what success looks like and have the ability to measure the difference. To make the above work you must have data that you can turn into information, giving you insight so you can make decisions with real impact. For that to happen successfully you need to be able to synthesise information and share data through the right governance and protocols.

It can be argued that IT companies have failed to lead the smart cities market because they are wedded to outdated business models where the return on investment (ROI) is too short and still focus on proprietary point solutions. Instead, the market is increasingly led by the Architecture, Engineering and Construction companies (AEC) who have a longer ROI, the ability to take a lead contractor role and bring in Telco, Utilities and IT as, and when, required but the force majeure is that we need visibility of decision making options facilitated by advanced urban digital infrastructure.

In conclusion, Digital twins are not a universal panacea but an integral part of the maturation of Advanced Urban Digital Urbanisation colloquially described as the ‘smart city’ market. We are creating the base data through the development of IoT platforms, we have yet to create Data exchanges that will allow for data synthesis that will bring the most out of Digital Twins and concomitant fit for purpose ROI models that would allow us to build the business case for initial and subsequent investment.

So where will the leadership come from? International Financial Institutions such as the European Commission, World Bank, Asian Development Bank et al., Sovereign Wealth Funds and National Governments have the funding and mandate but no unifying plan. Perhaps the relationship between Covid-19, climate change and cities is the burning platform they need to create one.