{"title":"The modified life cycle cost method for the risk-based design of excavation projects","authors":"Saeed Askarian, A. Fakher","doi":"10.1080/17499518.2022.2101067","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The life cycle cost (LCC) design method tries to improve conventional design practices with different costs, such as risk costs, over the life cycle of the structure in the design procedure. The present study introduces a modified life cycle cost (MLCC) approach for the design of excavations. Some modifications proposed in the typical LCC design method include considering the effect of risk aversion/seeking of decision-makers in the main LCC formula by a risk-seeking factor and taking in the effect of risk exposure time on risk cost by a risk duration as an impact factor. The risk-seeking factor is obtained by identifying the risky behaviour of decision-makers based on the expected utility theory. The risk duration impact factor is evaluated by analysing statistical information about high-risk excavations versus their lifetime. The novel MLCC design method is evaluated in real deep urban excavation projects and the method is applicable for design and yields sensible outputs.","PeriodicalId":48524,"journal":{"name":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.5000,"publicationDate":"2022-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Georisk-Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17499518.2022.2101067","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, GEOLOGICAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
ABSTRACT The life cycle cost (LCC) design method tries to improve conventional design practices with different costs, such as risk costs, over the life cycle of the structure in the design procedure. The present study introduces a modified life cycle cost (MLCC) approach for the design of excavations. Some modifications proposed in the typical LCC design method include considering the effect of risk aversion/seeking of decision-makers in the main LCC formula by a risk-seeking factor and taking in the effect of risk exposure time on risk cost by a risk duration as an impact factor. The risk-seeking factor is obtained by identifying the risky behaviour of decision-makers based on the expected utility theory. The risk duration impact factor is evaluated by analysing statistical information about high-risk excavations versus their lifetime. The novel MLCC design method is evaluated in real deep urban excavation projects and the method is applicable for design and yields sensible outputs.
期刊介绍：
Georisk covers many diversified but interlinked areas of active research and practice, such as geohazards (earthquakes, landslides, avalanches, rockfalls, tsunamis, etc.), safety of engineered systems (dams, buildings, offshore structures, lifelines, etc.), environmental risk, seismic risk, reliability-based design and code calibration, geostatistics, decision analyses, structural reliability, maintenance and life cycle performance, risk and vulnerability, hazard mapping, loss assessment (economic, social, environmental, etc.), GIS databases, remote sensing, and many other related disciplines. The underlying theme is that uncertainties associated with geomaterials (soils, rocks), geologic processes, and possible subsequent treatments, are usually large and complex and these uncertainties play an indispensable role in the risk assessment and management of engineered and natural systems. Significant theoretical and practical challenges remain on quantifying these uncertainties and developing defensible risk management methodologies that are acceptable to decision makers and stakeholders. Many opportunities to leverage on the rapid advancement in Bayesian analysis, machine learning, artificial intelligence, and other data-driven methods also exist, which can greatly enhance our decision-making abilities. The basic goal of this international peer-reviewed journal is to provide a multi-disciplinary scientific forum for cross fertilization of ideas between interested parties working on various aspects of georisk to advance the state-of-the-art and the state-of-the-practice.
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