{"title":"Impact of restrictions on the COVID-19 pandemic situation in Poland","authors":"Sergiusz Herman","doi":"10.2478/stattrans-2022-0034","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has had a substantial impact on public health all over the world. In order to prevent the spread of the virus, the majority of countries introduced restrictions which entailed considerable economic and social costs. The main goal of the article is to study how the lockdown introduced in Poland affected the spread of the pandemic in the country. The study used synthetic control method to this end. The analysis was carried on the basis of data from the Local Data Bank and a government website on the state of the epidemic in Poland. The results indicated that the lockdown significantly curbed the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland. Restrictions led to the substantial drop in infections – by 9500 cases – in three weeks. The results seem to stay the same despite the change of assumptions in the study. Such conclusion can be drawn from the performance of the placebo-in-space and placebo-in-time analyses.","PeriodicalId":37985,"journal":{"name":"Statistics in Transition","volume":"23 1","pages":"127 - 146"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2022-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Statistics in Transition","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2478/stattrans-2022-0034","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"Mathematics","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has had a substantial impact on public health all over the world. In order to prevent the spread of the virus, the majority of countries introduced restrictions which entailed considerable economic and social costs. The main goal of the article is to study how the lockdown introduced in Poland affected the spread of the pandemic in the country. The study used synthetic control method to this end. The analysis was carried on the basis of data from the Local Data Bank and a government website on the state of the epidemic in Poland. The results indicated that the lockdown significantly curbed the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in Poland. Restrictions led to the substantial drop in infections – by 9500 cases – in three weeks. The results seem to stay the same despite the change of assumptions in the study. Such conclusion can be drawn from the performance of the placebo-in-space and placebo-in-time analyses.
期刊介绍：
Statistics in Transition (SiT) is an international journal published jointly by the Polish Statistical Association (PTS) and the Central Statistical Office of Poland (CSO/GUS), which sponsors this publication. Launched in 1993, it was issued twice a year until 2006; since then it appears - under a slightly changed title, Statistics in Transition new series - three times a year; and after 2013 as a regular quarterly journal." The journal provides a forum for exchange of ideas and experience amongst members of international community of statisticians, data producers and users, including researchers, teachers, policy makers and the general public. Its initially dominating focus on statistical issues pertinent to transition from centrally planned to a market-oriented economy has gradually been extended to embracing statistical problems related to development and modernization of the system of public (official) statistics, in general.
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