{"title":"Real-Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty*","authors":"Ana Beatriz Galvão, James Mitchell","doi":"10.1111/obes.12542","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>GDP is measured with error. But data uncertainty is rarely communicated quantitatively in real-time. An exception are the fan charts for historical real GDP growth published by the Bank of England. To assess how well data uncertainty is understood, we first evaluate the accuracy of the historical fan charts. We find that data uncertainties can be accurately quantified, even without judgement, using past revisions data. Secondly, we conduct an online survey to gauge perceptions of GDP data uncertainty across a wider set of experts. Our results call for greater communication of data uncertainties to anchor experts' dispersed expectations.</p>","PeriodicalId":54654,"journal":{"name":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.5000,"publicationDate":"2023-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/obes.12542","citationCount":"2","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/obes.12542","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Abstract
GDP is measured with error. But data uncertainty is rarely communicated quantitatively in real-time. An exception are the fan charts for historical real GDP growth published by the Bank of England. To assess how well data uncertainty is understood, we first evaluate the accuracy of the historical fan charts. We find that data uncertainties can be accurately quantified, even without judgement, using past revisions data. Secondly, we conduct an online survey to gauge perceptions of GDP data uncertainty across a wider set of experts. Our results call for greater communication of data uncertainties to anchor experts' dispersed expectations.
GDP的测量存在误差。但数据的不确定性很少被实时定量地传达。英国央行(Bank of England)发布的历史GDP增长扇形图是个例外。为了评估对数据不确定性的理解程度，我们首先评估历史扇形图的准确性，并将其与过去修订数据的模型进行比较。其次，为了衡量更多专家对GDP数据不确定性的看法，我们进行了一项新的在线调查。我们的研究结果要求对数据不确定性进行更多的沟通，以锚定对数据不确定性的分散预期。但他们认为，即使没有判断，利用过去的修正数据，也可以充分量化暂时数据的不确定性。
期刊介绍：
Whilst the Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics publishes papers in all areas of applied economics, emphasis is placed on the practical importance, theoretical interest and policy-relevance of their substantive results, as well as on the methodology and technical competence of the research.
Contributions on the topical issues of economic policy and the testing of currently controversial economic theories are encouraged, as well as more empirical research on both developed and developing countries.
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