China’s Economic Growth: Threats and Challenges to Chinese Economy and Energy Security

Abstract

Despite global pandemic Chinese economic growth rate was 2.3 percent in 2020. GDP surpassed US $ 15 trillion and growth rate raised to 6.5 percent in fourth quarter of 2020 and US $ 17 trillion GDP was recorded in first quarter of 2021. People Republic China’s (PRC) gigantic military budget and revolution in military affairs (RMA) creates senese of hegemonic ambitions in its neighbours. Contrarily, United States (US) sights PRC has ambitions to expand its political influence, gain access to economic markets, change international order by replacing US. This potential asymmetrical and imbalanced relationship locks America in typical Thucydides trap. Washington reached conclusion that economic growth and military might are intertwined. However, it is dependent on China’s energy supplies. PRC’s rise can be slowed down by stopping or interrupting the flow of energy supplies. Range of threats are posed to PRC oil imports i.e. US aerial strike on PRC oil//gas pipelines, use of proxies specially ast Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) to disrupt oil supplies, terrorist attacks on oil containers on land and naval blockade in Persian Gulf. The inference drawn is energy security dependent on Strait of Malacca is Achilles Heel of China. This paper aims at probing Washington’s capacity to disrupt or stop energy supplies to PRC in Malacca strait, Persian Gulf, land routes in Pakistan. It discusses various strategies including direct naval blockade, use of proxies and direct military strikes.