Dynamics of Passenger Demand and Transport Work in Croatian Public Road Traffic System

Abstract

Passenger demand and transport work are the basic quantitative indicators of the effects achieved in public road passenger transport activities. The research is conducted to determine the need for managing the transport system and planning its further development. The aim of this paper was to determine the dynamics of development of these two sizes in the seventeen-year period from 2000 to 2016, and to use them to develop a prognostic trend model for the future period. Furthermore, the correlation analysis determined the relations between traffic and economic quantities, and the road transport system was compared by mathematical and statistical parameters with all other traffic systems of the Republic of Croatia, in order to determine its share and importance in the Croatian public transport system. Based on the analysis conducted for passenger demand, a future downward trend is projected. Future trends will be identified for transport work based on the developed trend model and correlations between transport and economic sizes. Furthermore, the road transport system accounts for the largest share of transport work and passenger demand in the Croatian public transport system.