The elk (Alces alces) at the southern limit of its geographic range: population status in the Central Polissia, wolf predation, and vulnerability to climate warming

Abstract

In the latter less hot years after the decline in the number of elk (2019–2020), the stabilisation and increasing trend in the number of this species have been observed throughout the study area. Due to migrations, the winter elk population exceeds the summer one and amounts to 2 individuals/thousand hectares (40 individuals; against 1.3 individuals/1 thousand hectares in summer) in the Polissia Reserve, and 1–6 individuals/1 thousand hectares (940 individuals) in the Chornobyl Reserve. Data on the vulnerability of elk to climate change are presented. In hot weather at different times of the year, elks may show signs of heat stress. In summer, elk can be inactive, and in the leafless period, when chased by wolves, they can get heat stress and die. In the heat of the day, elk choose swamps, waterlogged forests with a dense tree canopy and better cooling, which are comfortable for these ungulates in the face of global warming. Climate change causes marshes to dry up and overgrow, reduces the moisture content of habitats, and worsens the fodder capacity of the land. In case of even partial restoration of lowland marshes in the Chornobyl Biosphere Reserve, the reserves of summer and winter food for elk may increase by 2–3 times. In the Polissia Reserve, in 2011–2013, lowland bogs with bush willows (Salix) were restored on fallow land near the Zholobnytsia drainage system, creating highly productive habitats for the elk, which is a promising measure for different areas of Polissia. Climate warming has led to an increase in the red deer (Cervus elaphus) population and a decrease in the elk population in the Polissia, and if no special measures are taken, these trends will intensify. Outside of protected areas, given the lack of a high legal status for wolves (Canis lupus), a strategy for conserving the elk population and reducing predation mortality in combination with other elk habitat management strategies can be recommended to hunting ground users, including limiting poaching, restoring the natural regime of forest fires in reserves, improving winter provision of branch fodder, reducing the disturbance factor, and introducing a ban on staying in the forest with dogs for berry and mushroom pickers.