Thermal sum drives abundance and distribution range shift of Panolis flammea in Finland

IF 1.8 3区 农林科学 Q2 FORESTRY Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research Pub Date : 2022-02-17 DOI:10.1080/02827581.2022.2060303
John Alexander Pulgarín Díaz, M. Melin, Olli-Pekka Tikkanen
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Abstract

ABSTRACT Climate change has assisted the northward range expansion of various forest insect pests, increasing the risk of forest damage in Northern Europe. The pine beauty moth, Panolis flammea, is common in European pine stands with cyclical outbreaks that have damaged thousands of hectares. In the 1970s, its Finnish northern distribution limit was reported to be 64°N. We re-evaluated the northernmost distribution limit of P. flammea in Finland and studied the effect of temperature sum on its abundance. We used pheromone-based traps throughout Finland in 2019–2020. The number of individuals caught in each trap was coupled with previous year thermal sums from the same location, and the relationship between them was analysed using a generalised linear mixed model. P. flammea had spread into northern Finland to 68°51’N, at ∼10.2 km/year, 50 years ahead of earlier predictions. We found a non-linear correlation between thermal sums and P. flammea abundance, increasing from cold to warm areas. Given the climate change scenarios for Fennoscandia, its range and population could continue to increase, allowing it to become another widespread coniferous-forest insect pest. Understanding the effects of temperature on its populations will allow us to model their probable future distribution and population dynamics.
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热和驱动芬兰火烈鸟的丰度和分布范围转移
气候变化促使各种森林害虫向北扩展,增加了北欧森林破坏的风险。松树美蛾,Panolis flammea,在欧洲松林中很常见,周期性爆发已经破坏了数千公顷。在20世纪70年代,据报道其芬兰北部分布界限为北纬64度。我们重新评估了芬兰最北端的火烈鸟分布界限,并研究了温度和对其丰度的影响。2019-2020年,我们在芬兰各地使用了基于信息素的陷阱。每个陷阱捕获的个体数量与上一年同一地点的热总和相结合,并使用广义线性混合模型分析它们之间的关系。火烈菌以每年约10.2公里的速度扩散到芬兰北部68°51′n,比先前的预测提前了50年。结果表明,热总量与红杉丰度呈非线性相关,从冷区到暖区依次增加。考虑到芬诺斯坎迪亚的气候变化情况,它的范围和数量可能会继续增加,使它成为另一种广泛存在的针叶林害虫。了解温度对其种群的影响将使我们能够模拟它们未来可能的分布和种群动态。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.00
自引率
5.60%
发文量
26
审稿时长
3.3 months
期刊介绍: The Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research is a leading international research journal with a focus on forests and forestry in boreal and temperate regions worldwide.
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