What are the key performance indicators related to winning matches in the German Bundesliga?

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study investigated the influence of match-related variables on teams’ winning probabilities during the 2021/2022 Bundesliga. The sample comprised 240 matches. The Deutsche Fußball Liga (DFL) captured the competition data through the semi-automatic camera system (TRACAB, ChyronHego, New York, U.S.A). The data were merged and processed post-match at Kinexon Sports App® (Kinexon Sports & Media GmbH). Match variables regarding physical, technical, and tactical actions were analysed and compared between winning and losing teams using a MANOVA. In addition, a stepwise multiple linear regression was performed with the goal difference as the predicted variable and all match-related statistics as predictor variables. Results indicated that winning teams performed more accelerations, ball possessions, passes, successful passes, and shots than losing ones. The regression analysis indicated that increasing the number of shots, close-pressure actions, recovered ball possessions, and successful passes predict winning. On the other hand, increasing the values of running-to-pressure actions, crosses, long goal kicks, and lost ball possessions is likely to reduce the value of the goal difference. Successful performances in the Bundesliga are explained by safely keeping the ball in possession, progressing towards the opposing goal through short passes and creating goal-scoring opportunities through the central corridor of the pitch.