Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan, Director, Centre for Security, Strategy and Technology, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi

Abstract

In their essay “ Upsetting the Nuclear Order: How the Rise of Nationalist Populism Increases Nuclear Dangers, ” Oliver Meier and Maren Vieluf highlight some important aspects of nationalist-populists ’ decision-making styles and argue that they could lead to greater nuclear danger and undermine the global nuclear order. The authors also challenge the traditional notion of responsible and irresponsible nuclear-weapon states. These aspects of nationalist-populist leaders ’ in fl uence on nuclear decision making have not been studied in any detail before; the article thus represents an important con-tribution to the academic literature on nuclear decision making and nuclear danger. Despite its importance as a fi rst cut, there are a number of drawbacks in the argument. It is undoubtedly true that nationalist-populist leaders have shown a distinct attitude toward foreign and defense policies and choices. But whether this also impacts nuclear-weapons decision making is a bit more uncertain because that decision-making remains a signi fi cantly distinct arena for policy makers. More signi fi cantly, the choice of national-ist-populist leaders — former US President Donald Trump, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Russian President Vladimir Putin — is questionable. That Chinese President Xi Jinping is not categorized as a nation-alist-populist leader is surprising. While there may not be an electoral process that keeps Xi and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in power, Xi and the CCP appear conscious that the legitimacy of the party is maintained by the policies of Xi and his party. They have carefully used populism in pushing their policies, even if the manner in which Chinese public perceptions are managed may be di ff erent. Xi ’ s anti-corruption drive, for instance, was propelled primarily by careful use and nurturing of public anger. In foreign policy, the CCP has again carefully nurtured and managed public opinion to gain support for policy. The manner in which China responded to South Korea after the latter ’ s decision to deploy the American THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) missile-defense system is a case in point: