Does the bullet train exacerbate urban shrinkage? Lessons from Japan

Abstract

This paper evaluates the driving forces of urban shrinkage, focusing on transportation infrastructure using a conceptual framework. Employing a difference‐in‐difference approach, this study explores the impact of the high‐speed railway on local shrinkage by focusing on implementing the bullet train in the Kyushu Shinkansen region of Japan. Our results show that after the introduction of the bullet train line, remote peripheral regions suffered population loss while suburban areas near the metropolitan area experienced population growth. Further analysis verifies that the bullet train had a particularly significant negative impact on local employment and establishments in the service sector in remote regions.