{"title":"Unlucky Number 13? Manipulating Evidence Subject to Snooping","authors":"Uwe Hassler, Marc-Oliver Pohle","doi":"10.1111/insr.12488","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Questionable research practices have generated considerable recent interest throughout and beyond the scientific community. We subsume such practices involving secret data snooping that influences subsequent statistical inference under the term MESSing (manipulating evidence subject to snooping) and discuss, illustrate and quantify the possibly dramatic effects of several forms of MESSing using an empirical and a simple theoretical example. The empirical example uses numbers from the most popular German lottery, which seem to suggest that 13 is an unlucky number.</p>","PeriodicalId":14479,"journal":{"name":"International Statistical Review","volume":"90 2","pages":"397-410"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7000,"publicationDate":"2022-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/insr.12488","citationCount":"3","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Statistical Review","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/insr.12488","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"STATISTICS & PROBABILITY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Abstract
Questionable research practices have generated considerable recent interest throughout and beyond the scientific community. We subsume such practices involving secret data snooping that influences subsequent statistical inference under the term MESSing (manipulating evidence subject to snooping) and discuss, illustrate and quantify the possibly dramatic effects of several forms of MESSing using an empirical and a simple theoretical example. The empirical example uses numbers from the most popular German lottery, which seem to suggest that 13 is an unlucky number.
期刊介绍：
International Statistical Review is the flagship journal of the International Statistical Institute (ISI) and of its family of Associations. It publishes papers of broad and general interest in statistics and probability. The term Review is to be interpreted broadly. The types of papers that are suitable for publication include (but are not limited to) the following: reviews/surveys of significant developments in theory, methodology, statistical computing and graphics, statistical education, and application areas; tutorials on important topics; expository papers on emerging areas of research or application; papers describing new developments and/or challenges in relevant areas; papers addressing foundational issues; papers on the history of statistics and probability; white papers on topics of importance to the profession or society; and historical assessment of seminal papers in the field and their impact.
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