Joint species distribution models reveal taxon-specific sensitivities to potential anthropogenic alteration

Abstract

Taxon–environment relationships can elucidate a taxon’s tolerance or sensitivity to specific environmental conditions. We use a joint species distribution modeling framework to quantify relationships between ∼1700 benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages in streams and rivers across the contiguous United States and several environmental gradients that are susceptible to human alteration (e.g., nutrients, salinity, physical habitat, and climate). We found that the predicted occurrence probability for sampling units where a taxon actually occurs was 0.15 to 0.24 greater than the predicted occurrence probability for sampling units where a taxon does not occur, and a relatively large percentage (32–58%) responded to gradients of substrate diameter, mean summer air temperature, or total P. At the assemblage level, genus richness could change along environmental gradients by as many as 5 to 17 taxa depending on the ecoregion. Often, the largest change in genus richness was associated with sediment diameter. We also investigated whether a suite of traits (i.e., clinger, scraper, pollution tolerance, and thermal optima) were related to a genus’ association with an environmental gradient and found that some traits are positively related to an organism’s occurrence along one environmental gradient but negatively related to its occurrence along another. For example, in several ecoregions, thermal preference was positively related to mean summer air temperature but negatively related to nutrient concentrations. Collectively, our results showcase a multivariate approach for modeling biotic assemblages that can integrate multiple sources of information (i.e., environmental factors, biological traits, phylogenetic relationships, and co-occurrences) that are routinely collected by biomonitoring programs.