{"title":"Átropos: towards a risk prediction model for software project management","authors":"A. Filippetto, Robson Lima, J. Barbosa","doi":"10.1504/ijasm.2020.10031512","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Deep changes have been taking place in business, brought about by increasing technological advancement and a constant digital transformation. Risk event management has become strategic in project management, where uncertainties are inevitable. In this sense, the use of concepts of ubiquitous computing, such as contexts, context histories, and mobile computing can assist in proactive project management. This paper proposes a computational model to the reduction of the probability of project failure through the prediction of risks. The aim of the study is showing a model to assist teams to identify and monitor risks at different points in the life cycle of projects. This research was conducting a case study containing five projects in execution to evaluate the risk recommendations. For history, a database with 153 projects was used for a financial company. The recommendations were evaluated by a project team composed of 9 professionals, obtaining a result of 72% acceptance.","PeriodicalId":38028,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Agile Systems and Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2020-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"5","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Agile Systems and Management","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1504/ijasm.2020.10031512","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"Multidisciplinary","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Abstract
Deep changes have been taking place in business, brought about by increasing technological advancement and a constant digital transformation. Risk event management has become strategic in project management, where uncertainties are inevitable. In this sense, the use of concepts of ubiquitous computing, such as contexts, context histories, and mobile computing can assist in proactive project management. This paper proposes a computational model to the reduction of the probability of project failure through the prediction of risks. The aim of the study is showing a model to assist teams to identify and monitor risks at different points in the life cycle of projects. This research was conducting a case study containing five projects in execution to evaluate the risk recommendations. For history, a database with 153 projects was used for a financial company. The recommendations were evaluated by a project team composed of 9 professionals, obtaining a result of 72% acceptance.
期刊介绍：
The objective of IJASM is to establish an effective channel of communication between academia, industry and persons concerned with the design and development of systems. Change is eternal and perpetual, irrespective of type of system. Systems created in the course of the advance of human civilization need to be functionally and operationally sustainable amid changes in technological, political, socio-economical, financial, cultural and other environmental challenges. IJASM aims to promote and harmonize knowledge developments in the emerging fields of agile systems research, sustainability and vulnerability analysis, risk assessments methodologies, complex systems science, e-organisation and e-supply chain management, with emphasis on the international dimension, particularly breaking cultural barriers, and on national contexts, globalisation and new business practices. As such, we aim to publish papers presenting new research, innovative theoretical approaches, changes in agile management paradigms, and action (both examples of successes and failures as long as there are important lessons to be learned) from leading scholars and practitioners. Papers generally fall into two broad categories: those grounded in theory and/or papers using scientific research methods (e.g., reports of original empirical studies, models, critical reviews of existing empirical research, theory pieces that clearly extend current thinking); and those focusing on innovative agile approaches that are based on well reasoned extensions of existing research, experiential knowledge, or exemplary cases (e.g., thought pieces, case studies, etc).
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