{"title":"Statistical modelling to examine the impact of changes in crude oil and fertiliser prices on maize prices and future forecasts in India","authors":"Sanjay Tyagi","doi":"10.1111/aab.12864","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study examines the impact of crude oil and fertiliser price changes on maize crop prices in India using monthly time series data from May 2007 to September 2022. The best-fitted Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model with the lowest Akaike's Information Criterion value is selected, and the Box–Ljung test is used to validate the prediction accuracy. Empirical results suggest that maize price is driven by crude oil and fertiliser prices since it has been found that maize prices are highly positively correlated with the prices of crude oil and fertiliser. Also, a strong correlation has been found between crude oil and fertiliser prices. The investigation for forecasting the next 15 months from November 2022 also revealed that maize prices showed no volatility because of a constant trend, but crude oil prices showed a declining trend, while di-ammonium phosphate prices showed an increasing trend over the period from November 2022 to February 2023. They then declined to June 2023 but again showed an increasing trend from July 2023 to January 2024 and achieved the highest price in December 2023. Because of a constant trend, urea prices showed no volatility over the 15 months. The estimates can aid the government in formulating policies to maintain agricultural crop production and control input price changes to meet the growing population's food demands.</p>","PeriodicalId":7977,"journal":{"name":"Annals of Applied Biology","volume":"184 1","pages":"123-135"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2000,"publicationDate":"2023-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Annals of Applied Biology","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/aab.12864","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
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Abstract
This study examines the impact of crude oil and fertiliser price changes on maize crop prices in India using monthly time series data from May 2007 to September 2022. The best-fitted Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model with the lowest Akaike's Information Criterion value is selected, and the Box–Ljung test is used to validate the prediction accuracy. Empirical results suggest that maize price is driven by crude oil and fertiliser prices since it has been found that maize prices are highly positively correlated with the prices of crude oil and fertiliser. Also, a strong correlation has been found between crude oil and fertiliser prices. The investigation for forecasting the next 15 months from November 2022 also revealed that maize prices showed no volatility because of a constant trend, but crude oil prices showed a declining trend, while di-ammonium phosphate prices showed an increasing trend over the period from November 2022 to February 2023. They then declined to June 2023 but again showed an increasing trend from July 2023 to January 2024 and achieved the highest price in December 2023. Because of a constant trend, urea prices showed no volatility over the 15 months. The estimates can aid the government in formulating policies to maintain agricultural crop production and control input price changes to meet the growing population's food demands.
本研究利用2007年5月至2022年9月的月度时间序列数据，考察了原油和化肥价格变化对印度玉米作物价格的影响。选择赤池信息准则(Akaike’s Information Criterion, AIC)值最低的最佳拟合自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型，并采用Box‐Ljung检验验证预测精度。实证结果表明，玉米价格受到原油和化肥价格的驱动，因为玉米价格与原油和化肥价格呈高度正相关。此外，原油价格和化肥价格之间也存在很强的相关性。从2022年11月开始的未来15个月的预测调查还显示，玉米价格没有波动，呈恒定趋势，但原油价格呈下降趋势，而磷酸二铵(DAP)价格在2022年11月至2023年2月期间呈上涨趋势。然后下降到2023年6月，但从2023年7月到2024年1月再次呈现上升趋势，并在2023年12月达到最高价格。由于持续的趋势，尿素价格在15个月内没有波动。这些估计可以帮助政府制定政策，以维持农作物生产和控制投入价格的变化，以满足不断增长的人口的粮食需求。这篇文章受版权保护。版权所有。
期刊介绍：
Annals of Applied Biology is an international journal sponsored by the Association of Applied Biologists. The journal publishes original research papers on all aspects of applied research on crop production, crop protection and the cropping ecosystem. The journal is published both online and in six printed issues per year.
Annals papers must contribute substantially to the advancement of knowledge and may, among others, encompass the scientific disciplines of:
Agronomy
Agrometeorology
Agrienvironmental sciences
Applied genomics
Applied metabolomics
Applied proteomics
Biodiversity
Biological control
Climate change
Crop ecology
Entomology
Genetic manipulation
Molecular biology
Mycology
Nematology
Pests
Plant pathology
Plant breeding & genetics
Plant physiology
Post harvest biology
Soil science
Statistics
Virology
Weed biology
Annals also welcomes reviews of interest in these subject areas. Reviews should be critical surveys of the field and offer new insights. All papers are subject to peer review. Papers must usually contribute substantially to the advancement of knowledge in applied biology but short papers discussing techniques or substantiated results, and reviews of current knowledge of interest to applied biologists will be considered for publication. Papers or reviews must not be offered to any other journal for prior or simultaneous publication and normally average seven printed pages.
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