Parsimonious stochastic forecasting of international and internal migration on the NUTS-3 level – an outlook of regional depopulation trends in Germany

Patrizio Vanella, Timon Hellwagner, Philipp Deschermeier
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Substantiated knowledge of future demographic changes that is derived from sound statistical and mathematical methods is a crucial determinant of regional planning. Of the components of demographic developments, migration shapes regional demographics the most over the short term. However, despite its importance, existing approaches model future regional migration based on deterministic assumptions that do not sufficiently account for its highly probabilistic nature. In response to this shortcoming in the literature, our paper uses age- and gender-specific migration data for German NUTS-3 regions over the 1995–2019 period and compares the performance of a variety of forecasting models in backtests. Using the bestperforming model specification and drawing on Monte Carlo simulations, we present a stochastic forecast of regional migration dynamics across German regions until 2040 and analyze their role in regional depopulation. The results provide evidence that well-known age-specific migration patterns across the urban-rural continuum of regions, such as the education-induced migration of young adults, are very likely to persist, and to continue to shape future regional (de)population dynamics.
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NUTS-3水平上国际和国内移民的简明随机预测——德国区域人口减少趋势展望
从可靠的统计和数学方法得到的关于未来人口变化的确凿知识是区域规划的关键决定因素。在人口发展的组成部分中,移民在短期内对区域人口构成的影响最大。然而,尽管它很重要,现有的方法基于确定性假设来模拟未来的区域迁移,这些假设没有充分说明其高概率性质。针对文献中的这一缺陷,我们的论文使用了1995-2019年期间德国NUTS-3地区的年龄和性别特定移民数据,并比较了各种预测模型在回试中的表现。利用最佳模型规范和蒙特卡罗模拟,我们对德国各地区到2040年的区域迁移动态进行了随机预测,并分析了它们在区域人口减少中的作用。研究结果表明,众所周知的跨城乡连续区域的年龄特定迁移模式,如年轻人受教育导致的迁移,很可能会持续存在,并继续塑造未来的区域(非)人口动态。
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来源期刊
Vienna Yearbook of Population Research
Vienna Yearbook of Population Research Social Sciences-Demography
CiteScore
1.90
自引率
0.00%
发文量
11
期刊介绍: In Europe there is currently an increasing public awareness of the importance that demographic trends have in reshaping our societies. Concerns about possible negative consequences of population aging seem to be the major force behind this new interest in demographic research. Demographers have been pointing out the fundamental change in the age composition of European populations and its potentially serious implications for social security schemes for more than two decades but it is only now that the expected retirement of the baby boom generation has come close enough in time to appear on the radar screen of social security planners and political decision makers to be considered a real challenge and not just an academic exercise.
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