Improving the urban heritage based on a tourism risk assessment using a hybrid fuzzy MADM method: The case study of Tehran's central district

IF 1.9 Q3 MANAGEMENT Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Pub Date : 2021-05-17 DOI:10.1002/mcda.1746
Ali Hosseini, Ahmad Pourahmad, Athareh Ayashi, Gwo-Hshiung Tzeng, Audrius Banaitis, Atiyeh Pourahmad
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引用次数: 10

Abstract

A primary reason for the failure of renewal plans for the heritage of urban areas is ignorance of the risk factors of tourism. Urban heritage sites are valuable tourism resources and focus on tourism activities. These sites are affected by risks and negative events. Assessing tourism risks requires an in-depth knowledge of the current situation. Thus, in order to reduce the risk of tourism on urban heritage, it is necessary to assess the risk of tourist destinations. This study assesses the urban heritage of central districts in Tehran with an emphasis on tourism risk as a real case study. This study provides an in-depth review of the dimensions and criteria for evaluating tourism risks from the perspectives of social culture, environment, finance, safety and security. Fourteen criteria developed on the basis of the fuzzy decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (FDEMATEL) method are adopted for this assessment to construct the fuzzy influential network relation map and find the fuzzy influential weights; this is known as the DEMATEL-based analysis network process (called DANP). The hybrid modified fuzzy VIKOR method is adopted to evaluate and reduce the tourism risk towards for closing the gap zero. Finally, an empirical case of Tehran city illustrates the availability and effectiveness of the proposed methods. The results revealed that safety and security risks have the greatest influence. The remaining dimensions are sociocultural, financial, and environmental risks. According to the model and the results of the risk assessment in tourism, this method is a reasonable solution for the assessment and risk analysis in real-world problems. The proposed method can be a useful tool for managers in tourism and urban planning.

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基于旅游风险评估的混合模糊MADM方法改善城市遗产——以德黑兰中心区为例
城市地区遗产更新计划失败的一个主要原因是忽视了旅游业的风险因素。城市遗产地是宝贵的旅游资源,是旅游活动的重点。这些站点受到风险和负面事件的影响。评估旅游风险需要对现状有深入的了解。因此,为了降低旅游对城市遗产的风险,有必要对旅游地的风险进行评估。本研究评估了德黑兰中心区的城市遗产,重点是旅游风险作为一个真实的案例研究。本文从社会文化、环境、金融、安全保障等方面对旅游风险评估的维度和标准进行了深入的探讨。采用基于模糊决策试验与评价实验室(FDEMATEL)方法制定的14条评判标准进行评价,构建模糊影响网络关系图,确定模糊影响权重;这被称为基于dematel的分析网络过程(称为DANP)。采用混合修正模糊VIKOR法对旅游风险进行评价,并将旅游风险降低到接近零的水平。最后,以德黑兰市为例,说明了所提方法的有效性。结果显示,安全和安保风险的影响最大。剩下的维度是社会文化、金融和环境风险。根据旅游风险评估的模型和结果,该方法为现实问题的评估和风险分析提供了合理的解决方案。所提出的方法可以成为旅游和城市规划管理人员的有用工具。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.70
自引率
10.00%
发文量
14
期刊介绍: The Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis was launched in 1992, and from the outset has aimed to be the repository of choice for papers covering all aspects of MCDA/MCDM. The journal provides an international forum for the presentation and discussion of all aspects of research, application and evaluation of multi-criteria decision analysis, and publishes material from a variety of disciplines and all schools of thought. Papers addressing mathematical, theoretical, and behavioural aspects are welcome, as are case studies, applications and evaluation of techniques and methodologies.
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