Labour Mobility With Vocational Skill: Australian Demand and Pacific Supply

Abstract

Can new channels for mid-skill labour mobility simultaneously enhance the welfare of Australia and the Pacific Region? Answering this question requires forecasting Australian demand for vocationally-skilled migrants over the next generation, and the potential for Pacific supply of those migrants. We project demand for such mid-skill migrants over the next three decades by combining data on trends in the demand for basic tasks with data on trends in native investment in education commensurate with those tasks. We estimate that the Australian economy growing at historical rates through the year 2050 will demand approximately 1.6–2.1 million foreign workers with Technical and Vocational Education and Training. A large share of these could be supplied from the Pacific Islands with sufficient investment in training, with direct cooperation from Australian employers, and targeted access to the Australian labour market.