A comparison of the method of moments estimator and maximum likelihood estimator for the success probability in the Fibonacci-type probability distribution

Q4 Mathematics Statistics in Transition Pub Date : 2022-09-01 DOI:10.2478/stattrans-2022-0028
Yeil Kwon
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Abstract A Fibonacci-type probability distribution provides the probabilistic models for establishing stopping rules associated with the number of consecutive successes. It can be interpreted as a generalized version of a geometric distribution. In this article, after revisiting the Fibonacci-type probability distribution to explore its definition, moments and properties, we proposed numerical methods to obtain two estimators of the success probability: the method of moments estimator (MME) and maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). The ways both of them performed were compared in terms of the mean squared error. A numerical study demon-srated that the MLE tends to outperform the MME for most of the parameter space with various sample sizes.
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Fibonacci型概率分布中成功概率的矩估计和最大似然估计方法的比较
摘要斐波那契类型的概率分布为建立与连续成功次数相关的停止规则提供了概率模型。它可以被解释为几何分布的广义形式。本文在回顾斐波那契型概率分布,探讨其定义、矩量和性质后,提出了两种成功概率估计的数值方法:矩量估计法(MME)和极大似然估计法(MLE)。根据均方误差对两者的表现进行了比较。数值研究表明,在不同样本量的大多数参数空间中,最大似然值的表现都优于最大似然值。
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来源期刊
Statistics in Transition
Statistics in Transition Decision Sciences-Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
CiteScore
1.00
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
9 weeks
期刊介绍: Statistics in Transition (SiT) is an international journal published jointly by the Polish Statistical Association (PTS) and the Central Statistical Office of Poland (CSO/GUS), which sponsors this publication. Launched in 1993, it was issued twice a year until 2006; since then it appears - under a slightly changed title, Statistics in Transition new series - three times a year; and after 2013 as a regular quarterly journal." The journal provides a forum for exchange of ideas and experience amongst members of international community of statisticians, data producers and users, including researchers, teachers, policy makers and the general public. Its initially dominating focus on statistical issues pertinent to transition from centrally planned to a market-oriented economy has gradually been extended to embracing statistical problems related to development and modernization of the system of public (official) statistics, in general.
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