Factors Influencing the Prices of Rice, Maize and Wheat Prices in Nigeria

Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Agris On-line Papers in Economics and Informatics Pub Date : 2023-03-30 DOI:10.7160/aol.2023.150109

O. O. Ogunmola, N. Verter, A. Obayelu

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Abstract

This study examines the impact of agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and imports on Nigeria’s food commodity prices using annual data from 1981 to 2018. Data obtained were analysed using the unit root test, cointegration test and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to evaluate the long-run and short-run effects of the hypothesized variables on the food commodity prices. The results reveal that maize import value and exchange rate significantly affect the price of maize in the short-run. In contrast, the lagged price of maize, maize output and the past value of maize imports are the factors that influenced the current price of maize within the review period. Also, the lagged price of rice, rice output and the lagged value of rice imported in the immediate year exerted significant influences on the price of rice in Nigeria. Furthermore, the study indicates that the lagged price of wheat, the import value of wheat and the lagged wheat import value were statistically significant in influencing wheat price in Nigeria. Hence, policies for flexibility in the harmonization of exchange rate movements strengthen domestic agricultural performance.

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影响尼日利亚大米、玉米和小麦价格的因素

本研究利用1981年至2018年的年度数据，考察了农业国内生产总值(GDP)和进口对尼日利亚粮食商品价格的影响。采用单位根检验、协整检验和自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型对所得数据进行分析，评估假设变量对食品价格的长期和短期影响。结果表明，玉米进口价值和汇率在短期内显著影响玉米价格。相比之下，滞后的玉米价格、玉米产量和过去的玉米进口价值是影响本报告所述期间玉米当前价格的因素。此外，大米的滞后价格、大米产量和当年进口大米的滞后价值对尼日利亚的大米价格产生了重大影响。此外，研究表明，小麦滞后价格、小麦进口价值和小麦进口滞后价值对尼日利亚小麦价格的影响具有统计学意义。因此，灵活协调汇率变动的政策可加强国内农业绩效。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Agris On-line Papers in Economics and Informatics Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)

CiteScore

2.20

自引率

0.00%

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期刊介绍： The international journal AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics is a scholarly open access, blind peer-reviewed by two reviewers, interdisciplinary, and fully refereed scientific journal. The journal is published quarterly on March 30, June 30, September 30 and December 30 of the current year by the Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague. AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics covers all areas of agriculture and rural development: -agricultural economics -agribusiness -agricultural policy and finance -agricultural management -agriculture''s contribution to rural development -information and communication technologies -information and database systems -e-business and internet marketing -ICT in environment -GIS, spatial analysis and landscape planning The journal provides a leading forum for an interaction and research on the above-mentioned topics of interest. The journal serves as a valuable resource for academics, policy makers and managers seeking up-to-date research on all areas of the subject. The journal prefers scientific papers by international teams of authors who deal with problems concerning the focus of our journal in the world-wide scope with relation to Europe.