Climate change, weather shocks, and price convergence in pre-industrial Germany

Abstract

Market integration of European inland regions such as Germany caught up on North-Western Europe from the seventeenth century onwards. As many studies rely on grain prices and the pre-industrial era was a period of climate change, a relevant question is in how far changing weather shocks impact on the measurement of convergence trends. We create a new high-quality grain price dataset and apply four methodologies to quantify market integration robust to weather shocks and climate change. Population growth and river transport turn out as plausible explanations for price convergence rather than climate change.