Modeling uncertainties of reservoir flushing simulations

Abstract

Every dam or barrage construction affects the watercourse and the retention of sediment that previously was carried by the river, which can lead to siltation of the reservoir and obstruction of water intakes over time, reducing their capacities. However, the information available regarding the effect of sediment and drawdown parameters, sediment management at reservoirs, as well as different equational approaches, is scarce. The current research aims to evaluate the effect of parameters associated with numerical modeling of sediment management in reservoirs considering scenarios with different drawdowns, transport equations, sediment size distributions, and thickness of the initial sediment layer. The case study of the Aimorés Hydropower Plant (HPP) is used, applying the Delft3D-FLOW model for two-dimensional modeling. All parameters influenced the volume of mobilized sediment, among which the initial layer thickness was the parameter that resulted in the greatest changes in simulated results. In general, the results show that the uncertainties in the input parameters outweigh the uncertainties between the techniques, which found large variations in results when evaluating the use of different transport equations. These results indicate the importance of proper estimation of model parameters for predicting effects with accuracy and the need for such studies before planning and management operations are evaluated to avoid environmental harm and energy waste.